Stock market
technician P.Q. Wall, a New Orleans bon vivant who is well-known
in the world of Kondratieff Wave theorists, has been waiting for some years with
millenarian exception for a collapse in the U.S. stock market and economy. For a
time, he thought that last summer's global financial crisis and stock market swoon was, in
fact, the beginning of a descent into nuclear winter. But the spirited rebound in
U.S. stock prices in the last three weeks of October that saw the Dow rise more than 1,000
points from the October 8 low was enough to push him out of the Apocalypse Now camp.
By December, he began predicting based on his "dynamic web" analysis that
the Dow was on the verge of an exponential rise that would carry it to over 12,000 by
summer and 14,660 in the summer of 2000.
Wall says we are now in the midst of a dynamic three- to four-year Kitchin cycle in the economy, and the peak in the market won't come until after this cycle ends next year.
What will come after that? According to Wall, one shouldn't ask. He sees a gruesome, six-year decline in the Dow to under 2000 and global economic collapse triggered by runaway deflation and debt collapse. Well, at least we can take heart that Wall is bullish for the next year or so.
BARRON'S - THE DOW JONES BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL
WEEKLY
March 15, 1999